By Eric Tiongson
Week 1 is the ultimate test of patience.
After a long, barren, 6-month stretch without meaningful football, we get an avalanche, 16 games in a 5 day span! Finally, after so much speculation, we get real, actual football to react to. With all of the excitement and chaos that Week 1 brings, it can be easy to overreact to every little thing that takes place.
Remember Kevin Ogletree? He’s the poster child for Week 1 overreactions. Ogletree was a total non-factor in his first 3 NFL seasons, never topping more than 200 receiving yards in a year for the Cowboys. But in Week 1 of 2012, Ogletree exploded, going for 8 catches, 114 yards and 2 TDs as the Cowboys defeated the defending Super Bowl champion Giants on opening night.
Fantasy football players across the country scrambled to add Ogletree from the waiver wire. Was it going to be him, not Dez Bryant, who would emerge as Tony Romo’s top target? Well… Ogletree never topped 100 yards in a game again. He finished the year with 32 catches for 436 yards and 4 touchdowns, while Dez Bryant broke out as a true number 1, finishing with 92 catches, 1,382 yards and 12 touchdowns.
But not every early-season takeaway is an overreaction. For every 2012 Week 1 Kevin Ogletree, there’s an equal and opposite 2023 Week 1 Matthew Stafford.
Stafford was coming off a rough 2022 season, one where he suffered a serious elbow injury that caused him to miss half the year, and didn’t play very well even when he was healthy. The Rams won only 5 games that year, fewest ever by a defending Super Bowl champ, and many wondered if Stafford’s career was over and the Rams were headed for a long and ugly rebuild.
But in Week 1 of 2023, Stafford balled out against the Seahawks, passing for 334 yards and making some vintage Matthew Stafford throws. In this case, it was a sign of things to come: Stafford and the Rams’ demise was greatly exaggerated, the vet QB turned in one of the best seasons of his career and LA made the playoffs.
It’s a tricky job to try and figure out what matters and what doesn’t after only 1 week of football, but that’s what I’m going to attempt. Which Week 1 takeaways are “Staffords” instead of “Ogletrees”? What overreactions are actually worth caring about? Let’s do this!
The Lions’ reign atop the NFC North is in danger
After back-to-back division titles, the Lions entered the 2025 season as the odds-on favorite to make it 3 in a row. That is, until the afternoon of August 28. Just mere hours after the Packers acquired Micah Parsons in a trade, the Packers leapfrogged the Lions to have the best odds at winning the division. On Sunday, we saw why.
Green Bay throttled Detroit, beating them 27-13 in a game where the Packers didn’t trail once. It was jarring to see what has been one of the NFL’s juggernauts get beat so soundly, but what may be the biggest cause for concern is how the Lions lost.
I’m not sure that I’ve ever seen a Dan Campbell Lions team lose the battle at the line of scrimmage as badly as they did on Sunday. On offense, Jared Goff was sacked 4 times and pressured 16 times on 43 dropbacks, a pressure rate of 37.2%.
The Packers’ pass rush really limited what the Lions could dial up through the air, forcing Goff to get rid of the ball quickly and taking away any chance of chunk plays. Goff’s average depth of target was only 4.3 yards downfield, which is in the 3rd percentile for lowest since 2010.
On the ground, the dynamic backfield duo of Sonic and Knuckles was stifled, with Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery combining for only 44 yards on 20 carries. As a team, the Lions’ 46 rushing yards are the fewest they’ve had in a game since Week 6 of the 2023 season, and the 4th fewest in the Dan Campbell era.
While it can be easy to point to the loss of offensive coordinator Ben Johnson as the biggest reason for the Lions’ struggles on offense, I really think this has more to do with the hits they took on the offensive line. Frank Ragnow’s shock retirement and the departure of Kevin Zeitler in free agency left a gaping hole in the interior, one that Graham Glasgow, Christian Mahogany and Tate Ratledge struggled to fill.
Having a dominant, top-tier offensive line, more than anything else, has been the engine of the Lions’ prolific offense under Campbell. I’ll be honest, with a very inexperienced interior, I’m just not sure that the Lions’ line is going to be as good this year, and that could make a serious impact on the offense. I have to imagine that things will improve from what we saw on Sunday, and there’s no denying that the younger players on the line could develop as the season goes on, but I’m not counting on the same level of production that we’ve seen in the past few seasons. The offense should still be good, but can it be great?
On defense, Detroit mustered only 8 pressures, the 3rd fewest of any team in Week 1, and failed to record a single sack. Star defensive tackle Alim McNeil, who is still recovering from an injury suffered last December was sorely missed, as his absence allowed the Packers to easily double-team Aidan Hutchinson and shut him down. Without Hutchinson getting after the quarterback, the Lions’ pass rush looked toothless against a good Packers offensive line.
Despite their records, I thought that the Packers weren’t too far off from the Lions last season, and the losses suffered by the Lions and the gains made by the Packers may have closed the gap. Green Bay’s defense dominated on Sunday, and that was with Micah Parsons on a snap count and coming off a back injury that required an epidural. As a Vikings fan, it brings me little joy to say this: Green Bay is just getting started. This is a scary team that could go all the way, and they’ve got a huge head start on the race to the top of the NFC North.
The Buccaneers were right to draft Emeka Egbuka
Sometimes, it’s really just as simple as drafting the best guy available.
The Buccaneers’ decision to draft Emeka Egbuka in the 1st round of this year’s draft was met with some surprise. After all, Tampa already had an excellent receiving corps with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Jalen McMillan. With some serious concerns on defense, was it really a good idea to take another receiver?
Yeah, I suppose it was.
Egbuka was thrust into a prominent role on his debut due to injuries suffered by Godwin and McMillan, and responded with a phenomenal debut, hauling in 4 passes for 67 yards and 2 touchdowns, including the game-winner with 59 seconds left.
Sure, statistically speaking, this wasn’t the most eye-popping debut of all-time, but make no mistake, this guy can play. This was a big-time performance to step up in a game where the Bucs couldn’t get their rushing attack going and were without two of their top receivers from last season. Egbuka seized a golden opportunity that was given to him due to Godwin and McMillan’s absence, and I can’t help but think that he’s too good of a player to take off the field even when Godwin and McMillan return.
Perhaps the biggest knock on Egbuka’s game coming out of college was that he didn’t have the high-end athleticism that some of the NFL’s top receivers had, and that he wouldn’t be much of a downfield threat. There were also questions of whether Egbuka would be a bit more restricted as a slot only type of receiver, given his size. Both of those questions got put to bed quickly.
Belieive it or not, in Week 1 Egbuka actually spent more time on the outside than he did in the slot, with 30 snaps as an outside receiver compared to 24 in the slot. And of course, both of Egbuka’s touchdowns were on downfield routes, hauling in scores of 30 and 25 yards respectively.
Make no mistake, Egbuka still showed his chops as a “dirty work” slot receiver too. He does so many of the little things so well, there’s a reason he’s had praise heaped on him by coaches and teammates. Reliable hands, good route running and good blocking are all easy ways to get on the field, and Egbuka has all of those abilities in spades.
Give Jason Licht and the Bucs front office some props, they didn’t fret too much over positional value or team needs with their first round pick, they just set out to get the best player available. And it’s already won them a game.
The Jets’ offensive line is poised to break out
We highlight breakout players all the time, but how about breakout units?
I’m telling you guys, the Jets are building something special along the offensive line. There’s a lot of young talent to be excited about. When I ranked my top 10 lines going into the season, I was actually tempted to sneak New York in there, but I just didn’t have the guts to do it. By the end of this season though? I don’t think there will be any question, this group looks poised to break into the top tier of lines.
Going up against the Pittsburgh Steelers is one heck of a challenge for a young and inexperienced line. TJ Watt and Alex Highsmith make up a fantastic duo on the edge, and Cam Heyward and Keeanu Benton are a nasty pair on the interior. But the Jets, even without standout guard Alijah Vera-Tucker, kicked their tails at the line of scrimmage.
Against a nasty pass rush, Justin Fields was sacked only once, a very impressive feat considering his average time to throw was 3.53 seconds, by far the highest of any quarterback in Week 1. In the past, Fields has struggled with taking bad sacks due to holding on to the ball for too long, but on Sunday, his line afforded him extra time that he wasn’t getting in Chicago.
The Jets offense looked great, and it’s fair to be excited about what we saw from Fields, but I think it all started up front with some excellent pass protection. Check these plays out!
Again, this is a young tackle duo of Olu Fashanu and Armand Membou, holding their own against TJ Watt and Alex Highsmith. This was baptism by fire, this could have been a disaster. But it wasn’t. It was very encouraging to see their young bookened tackles hold up as well as they did.
I was just as, if not more impressed with how they looked on the ground. As a team, the Jets rushed for 182 yards and 3 touchdowns on 4.7 yards per carry, and their 0.111 EPA per rush was the 5th highest mark in Week 1. Already, the rushing attack looked much-improved from last season, where they ranked 20th in EPA per rush and 17th in rushing success rate. Once again, I think the lion’s share of the credit has to go to the line.
Offensive line talent is always at a premium in the NFL, and I love how much the Jets have invested into the trenches, with 3 homegrown 1st round picks along the line. I’m super excited to see how this unit grows and develops as the year goes on, and when Alijah Vera-Tucker returns from injury next season? Oh baby, this could be a special group.
Matthew Stafford is indeed healthy
Stop me if you’ve heard this before: Matthew Stafford comes into the season with a mysterious injury, and serious concerns over whether he’ll ever be a top-level quarterback again. Questions swirl if the Rams’ time atop the NFC West is over. And then, Matthew Stafford goes out in Week 1 and lights the world on fire.
Talk about a full circle moment! The same Week 1 overreaction that I had back in 2023, I have today as well. Folks, Matthew Stafford is ok. He’s more than ok. Back injury or not, he’s still one of the very best quarterbacks in the NFL, and played an amazing game on Sunday.
Admittledy, a 14-9 win is not the sexiest result, but make no mistake, this was a very encouraging performance against a very tough opponent. Stafford’s old age and injury history has made him a bit more suspecitble to good pass rushes in the later stages of his career, and the Texans boast one of the best defensive lines in the league, led by superstar edges Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter.
Had Stafford been banged up or washed, this could have been a complete disaster game for the Rams’ offense. But they got the job done, and Stafford moved the ball well through the air, passing for 245 yards, 1 TD, no INTs and completing over 72% of his passes.
But of course, numbers tell only a small part of the story. Some of the throws that Stafford made in this game were ludicrious, all the arm talent is still there. Let these plays wash over you, this is quarterbacking in it’s purest form.
Look, I’m not afraid to admit it. I’m an unabashed Matthew Stafford fanboy, he’s one of my all-time favorite players to watch and it makes me so happy that he’s still firing rockets at the ripe old age of 37. There are still very few quarterbacks that I would take over him, and if he keeps slinging the rock like this, the sky is the limit for this Rams team.