By Eric Tiongson
I’ve got a confession to make.
I’m a sucker for hot takes. I know, they get a bad rap these days, the term “hot take” is often associated with Stephen A. Smith screaming about the Cowboys, Nick Wright ragebaiting or just blindly throwing stuff at the wall and hoping it sticks, but that’s not what this is gonna be, I promise!
I’ve got a handful takes for the upcoming NFL season that I’ve been dying to get off my chest, and in the words of Russell Wilson, “be careful, it’s spicy!”
But here’s the fun part: I actually believe these. I’ve had way, way, way too much time on my hands this offseason to just sit and think about football, and these are 4 of the wildest takes that I’ve actually talked myself into having a shot at coming true this year.
To make things a little more fun, I’ve ordered them in level of spice, from least to most spicy. Think of it like Hot Ones, but with football takes! Alright, with that in mind, let’s get started with a little warm-up.
Spice level: Mild
Take: The Kansas City Chiefs will fail to make the AFC Championship Game for the 1st time in the Patrick Mahomes era
Yeah, yeah, I know, never bet against the Chiefs. We did this same song and dance going into the 2022 season, and they went on to win the Super Bowl. We did this same song and dance with the Patriots for about a decade, and they just never seemed to slow down.
But you know what? That doesn’t scare me! I’m going to say it: this year is different. After making it to at least the AFC Championship Game in every single year of the Patrick Mahomes era, the Chiefs’ streak of 7 straight Conference Championship Game appearances will end this season.
Maybe it’s because they got blown out in the Super Bowl, and I’m putting too much stock into just one game. Maybe it’s because the Salary Cap Monster comes for us all, and that KC lost some key contributors this offseason. Maybe it’s because I’ve just gotten a little bored with them. But am I crazy for thinking this is the least intimidating Chiefs team since Mahomes took over as the starting quarterback? Am I crazy for thinking they’ve lagged behind the Ravens and Bills and are clearly the 3rd best team in the AFC?
This is a roster that quietly has some glaring weaknesses: an offensive line that’s fresh off an all-time beating in the Super Bowl, and is now short an All-Pro guard in Joe Thuney. A rushing attack that had the 3rd lowest yards per carry in the league and had only 7 runs of at least 20 yards all last season. A defense that finished middle of the pack in EPA and success rate last season, and lost key contributors in Tershawn Wharton and Justin Reid. A receiving corps whose leading target getter from last season is soon to be 36 years old and showed obvious signs of decline, and one that will be without Rashee Rice for the first 6 games of the season.
I know that all might sound a little nitpicky, but I say all that to say this: I really think that the notion of “well, it’s the Chiefs, they’ll find a way” is doing a lot of heavy lifting. Maybe they really do just find a way, I won’t say that’s impossible, but I don’t think this is a roster that you can just pencil in to make the Super Bowl yet again. I don’t think it’s that wild to suggest that this could be a “down” season for KC, even if a down season is merely winning 11 games and getting bounced in the Divisional Round instead of making the Super Bowl for the 6th time in 8 years.
Hey, the Brady-Belichick Patriots, the dynasty the Chiefs always get compared to, had their fair share of “lean” years too. After the 2007 Super Bowl, the Pats went 3 straight years without making the AFC Championship Game, and went another 7 years without another Super Bowl win. This level of dominance is unprecedented, and every year, things just get a little bit harder.
I gotta tip my cap to the Chiefs. What they’ve done is impressive, making 7 straight Conference Championship Games in the Salary Cap Era is an incredible feat, and they pulled it off by masterfully pivoting at the right time, trading away Tyreek Hill after the 2021 season and switching from an explosive, vertical passing offense to a slow, methodical, grind-it-out offense.
This year feels like another pivot point, but there doesn’t seem to be as clear of an answer as there was in 2022. Can they really bring the deep ball back? That was supposed to happen last year, but it didn’t, Mahomes’ 40 passes of 20 yards or more ranked 19th in the NFL, and his 6.4 yard average depth of target was one of the lowest in football. Can the running game improve? Well, it’s the same backfield as last year, with Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt expected to split carries once again. Just how much more juice can they squeeze out of this current version of the offense? This season is going to be a fascinating test.
For nearly a decade now, if asked to take the Chiefs or the field, taking the Chiefs was the sensible answer. But, at the risk of setting myself up for major embarrassment, I just think this year is a little different. I’m taking the field.
Spice level: Got a little kick to it
Take: Jordan Mason, not Aaron Jones, leads the Vikings in rushing yards
Yup, that was my “weakest” take. It’s only getting spicier from here!
Those who are in a fantasy football league with me probably saw this take coming from a mile away. I’ve got Mason as one of my starting running backs in not just one, but two leagues! But it’s not for nothing. I truly think Jordan Mason is going to take over as the Vikings’ lead back, and it could take only a matter of weeks.
On the surface, fading Aaron Jones seems like a bad idea. Believe it or not, his 1,138 rushing yards last season was a career high! But let’s dig a little deeper.
Jones really ran out of steam towards the end of last season. From December on, he averaged only 56.7 rushing yards per game, down from 72.5 in the first 3 months of the season. And honestly, I don’t think that’s too surprising, given that he’s soon to be 31 years old and has logged 1,432 carries in his career.
Some other players who are in the same neighborhood of age and total carries include Dalvin Cook, Leonard Fournette, Nick Chubb and Christian McCaffrey. Would it really be that surprising if Jones’ late-season struggles were a sign of things to come, and he took a serious step back in 2025?
I’d be willing to bet that deep down, the Vikings are wondering the same thing. They went out of their way to get Mason, trading away a pair of draft picks to bring him in. If anything, I’m surprised the 49ers were even willing to deal him away in the first place, he played great for them last year!
Prior to a couple of injuries and Christian McCaffrey’s return from the IR, Mason was San Francisco’s lead back for the first 7 games of the season, where he averaged 95.3 yards per game on 5.2 yards per carry. Shoot, nearly halfway through last season, he was 2nd in the whole league in rushing yards!
Mason isn’t exactly a “home run hitter”, but he does hit a lot of doubles, if you will. Here are a few of my favorite runs of his from last season.
Kevin O’Connell has talked all offseason about how he wants to improve the running game and add some more physicality to the offense. Mason’s powerful running style fits that vision better than Jones, and the Vikings also brought in 3 new starters on the offensive line to boot. I just can’t help but think that it’s only a matter of time before Mason starts getting the lion’s share of the carries. He’s too good of a back, has experience playing in a similar scheme under Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco and is the exact type of player the Vikings are looking for.
I might be a little crazy for having a backup running back as one of my starters in fantasy. But he might not be the backup for long.
Spice level: Sign a waiver before eating
Take: Drake London wins the receiving Triple Crown
Since 1932, there have been 17 instances of a player leading the league in receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns all in the same season, the elusive Triple Crown. Predicting anyone to achieve this feat is a hot enough take on its own, but how about someone who has yet to lead the league in any of these stats?
I’ll admit, I would never have fathomed making a prediction like this about London a year ago. In fact, back in April of 2024, I recall my good friend Oscar, a Falcons fan, asking me if I ever thought London could make the leap into the elite tier of receivers. I said no, I thought London was a pretty good player but just didn’t have that extra level to his game. Boy, was I wrong.
I’ve been radicalized. Drake London has indeed made the leap into the elite tier of receivers, and I think that he’s primed to explode in 2025. He could have the elite wide receiver season, and as crazy as this sounds, I think he’s got a real shot at the Triple Crown.
I absolutely love the way that Falcons OC Zac Robinson uses London in this offense. While his 6’5 frame and background in basketball would suggest that London is exclusively an X receiver, he actually saw a lot of work from the slot last season, lining up as a slot receiver for a career high 232 passing snaps, about 39% of the time.
In this alignment, he’s a matchup nightmare, and it’s fully unlocked his unique skillset. London far too big and strong for most slot corners, but he’s also every bit as quick and smooth of a route runner as you’d expect from an elite slot receiver. Putting London in the slot gave him a lot of “easier” looks that he just wasn’t getting in Arthur Smith’s offense, and it was refreshing to see the Falcons’ passing game run through London instead of Jonnu Smith screen passes.
Here are a few of my favorite reps of London working from the slot last year. If you want to know how he shot up from 72 and 69 catches in his first two seasons to 100 last year, plays like these are why.
Alright, nerding out about London’s use in the slot was fun, but that alone is not going to be enough to get him the Triple Crown. How can he take yet another massive leap in production? How about a new QB throwing him the ball?
Michael Penix Jr. has drawn a lot of comparisons to Matthew Stafford, and while I would be shocked if he turned out to be as good as Stafford, there are a lot of similarities in their games. Both have big arms, aren’t afraid to take big shots downfield and both love playing “buddy ball” with their top receiver.
London played 3 games with Penix last season, and usage in those games was nothing short of insane. Penix targeted London 39 times in those 3 games, 13 times per game! That’s a season-long pace of 221 targets, which would shatter the previous single-season record of 208.
Yeah, 3 games is a small sample size and maybe London doesn’t quite get to 221 targets this season, but could he get 200, and maybe even surpass 208? I think that’s more than possible. The offensive coordinator loves giving London easy looks, the quarterback loves feeding London, the Falcons’ receiving corps behind London is thin, and a shaky defense could put Atlanta in shootouts all season long.
It’s not too late to join me on the Drake London train to superstardom. This is an exceptionally talented player who’s in an offensive environment ripe for a monster season. Winning the Triple Crown is an incredibly high bar, but I think he has it in him.
Spice level: “He need some milk!”
Take: the New York Giants make the playoffs
Note: This part of the story was written before Jerry Jones had the genius idea to trade away Micah Parsons. I’m now even more confident that this is going to happen.
According to the folks in Las Vegas, the New York Giants have the 3rd worst odds to make the playoffs of any team in the NFL. But I couldn’t disagree more. I’ve fully talked myself into this, the Giants are going to shock the world and make the playoffs. Yes, this is ridiculous, but hear me out!
On the surface, the Giants don’t have much going for them. They’re coming off back-to-back losing seasons, their coach is on the hot seat, their quarterback room is a mess and they’re in one of the toughest divisions in the NFL. But you know what they do have? Dexter Lawrence, a true game-changer and one of the best players in the NFL. A young, talented defense around Lawrence, one of the best-looking 4 man rushes in the league and a nasty secondary behind the front 4. Malik Nabers, a true WR 1 who can take over a game and carry a passing offense by himself.
“Alright Doc, that’s cool and all, but there’s no way that’s enough for them to make the playoffs, right?”
Maybe it is! You’d be surprised! Remember the 2023 Cleveland Browns?
On the surface, the Browns didn’t have much going for them. They were coming off back-to-back losing seasons, their coach was on the hot seat, their quarterback room was a mess and they were in one of the toughest divisions in the NFL. But you know what they did have? Myles Garrett, a true game-changer and one of the best players in the NFL. A young, talented defense around Garrett, one of the best 4 man rushes in the league and a nasty secondary behind the front 4. Amari Cooper, a true WR 1 who took over games and carried the passing offense by himself.
We see this every year. A team comes out of nowhere to shock the world and make the playoffs. That doesn’t always mean that they go on to make the Super Bowl or anything, but what’s required to hit 10 or so wins is a lot less than you might think! Forget the quarterback situation for a second, this Giants roster looks good!
Get this: last season, the Giants finished 8th in the NFL in sacks, and that was with Dexter Lawrence missing 5 games and before they added Abdul Carter, one of the best edge prospects in recent memory. Lawrence, Carter, Brian Burns and Kayvon Thibedeoux as a rotational piece is a ludicrous group of pass rushers, and being able to get after the quarterback without blitzing can win you a surprising amount of games on its own.
I also really like the moves New York made in the secondary, bringing in Jevon Holland and Paulson Adebo in free agency. Holland is a fun, versatile piece that can play deep, blitz and line up in the box and Adebo, while not perfect, is great at making plays on the ball, totaling 10 interceptions and 29 pass breakups in his 4 year career. Adebo’s aggressive, ball-hawking style of play could pair nicely with a strong pass rush in front of him, with QBs rushing throws and Adebo excelling at capitalizing on mistakes.
Those two, plus 2nd-year safety Tyler Nubin and criminally underrated slot corner Dru Phillips make up what I think is a sneaky-good back end. This is a great-looking defense that I think is going to get after the quarterback and force a lot of turnovers. Again, you can win a surprising amount of games by just doing that!
I’ll grant you, the offense certainly looks less exciting than the defense, but I can at least see the vision for how they can get to “competent.” If the Giants can score around 22 points a game, I think they’re gonna be a very tough out.
Malik Nabers is the obvious centerpiece. This dude is so good, what else is there to say? As a rookie, he posted 109 catches for 1,204 yards and 7 touchdowns, despite playing in a nightmare of an offense and missing 2 games due to injury. He wins on the outside, he wins lined up in the slot, he beats man, zone and press, he’s as complete of a route runner as there is, and he’s got the speed to burn you deep or turn a short dumpoff into a 60-yard touchdown. When comparing the 2023 Browns and this year’s Giants, I drew a parallel between Nabers and Amari Cooper, and no disrespect to Cooper but c’mon, Nabers is just different.
This might be crazy, but I think 10 to 12 Nabers targets a game might actually be enough to at least keep this passing game afloat. All we need is a mix of cool, schemed-up looks to get Nabers in space and a few “screw it, Malik down there somewhere” deep shots from Russell Wilson. As weird as this may sound, Nabers is uniquely equipped to carry what would be an otherwise bad offense, simply because he can turn any play into an explosive gain or a touchdown.
Do you see my vision? A top 10, maybe even top 5 defense, paired with an All-Pro level carry job by Nabers on offense is honestly not the worst team build in the world. I can picture it now: come January, everyone will be scratching their heads, wondering how on Earth the Giants won 9 games and managed to sneak into the playoffs as the NFC’s 7 seed. Don’t say I didn’t warn you!